António Moniz

Recent developments in automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are leading to a wave of innovation in organizational design and changes in the workplace. Techno-optimists even named it the ‘second machine age’, arguing that it now involves the substitution of the human brain. Other authors see this as just a continuation of previous ICT developments. Potentially, automation and AI can have significant technical, economic, and social implications in firms. The paper will answer the question: what are the implications on industrial productivity and employment in the automotive sector with the recent automation trends, including AI, in Portugal? Our approach used mixed methods to conduct statistical analyses of relevant databases and interviews with experts on R&D projects related to automation and AI implementation. Results suggest that automation can have widespread adoption in the short term in the automotive sector, but AI technologies will take more time to be adopted. Findings show that adoption of automation and AI increases productivity in firms and is dephased in time with employment implications. Investments in automation are not substituting operators but rather changing work organization. Thus, negative effects about technology and unemployment were not substantiated by our results

https://ideas.repec.org/p/mde/wpaper/0165.html

New technologies, sustainability policies, protectionism and consumers preferences are pushing for the reorganisation of the automotive cluster. The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to create disruptive effects in the employment systems across the world. The future deployment of broad-spectrum algorithms capable of being used in wide areas of application (e.g., industrial robotics, software and data communication) can lead to considerable changes in current work patterns, swiftly render many unemployed across the globe and profoundly destabilise labour relations. In this paper, we identify the probable penetration of AI in the automotive sector and to study its effects on work organisation, employment, and industrial relations systems, in Portugal. These changes are put in place to enhance the product quality, control costs, and improve productivity. We study these implications on productivity and industrial relations collecting new data and obtain results based on secondary statistical analyses and case studies in the automotive industry. Finally, changes in the productivity and labour market will be discussed considering the employment and skills changes in the automotive sector when investment on automation becomes a clear trend in the automotive sector.

The new book edited by Rodríguez and colleagues focuses on the topic of forecasting and responsible innovation. The original title is “Anticipación e Innovación Responsible: La construcción de futuros alternativos para la ciencia y la tecnologia” (Forecasting and Responsible Innovation: The construction of alternative futures for science and technology), and was published by Biblioteca Nueva, Madrid. Throughout this text, the reviewer is using the term forecasting instead of anticipation to convey the Spanish concept of “anticipación.” Both concepts are usually applied to “the act of looking forward” (Merriam-Webster dictionary1) or “the act of expecting or foreseeing something; expectation or presentiment” (Farlex free dictionary2) The concept of forecasting is usually used in scientific debate to mean “to estimate or predict in advance” (American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, 2016) or “the process of making predictions based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends” (Wikipedia3) (Glenn, 1994, p. 4) expressed this definition well by saying that “studying the future is not simply economic projections or sociological analysis or technological forecasting, but a multi-disciplinary examination of change in all major areas of life to find the interacting dynamics that are creating the next age.” The concept has been developed mainly by Armstrong (2001) and followed by Farrukh and Holgado (2020), Schnaars (2009), and Marinakis (2012), among others. The editors are professors and researchers from the University of Basque Country (EHU) and from the University of Mondragon (MU). The book involves a whole set of experts on the topic, including the editors themselves (Hannot Rodríguez, Sergio Urueña, Andoni Eizagirre, and Oier Imaz), and Armin Grunwald, René von Schomberg, Javier Garcia Fronti, Domingo García Marzá, Andoni Ibarra, and others. Although still published just in Spanish, it is an important contribution to the social sciences and philosophy of sciences regarding the analysis of alternative sociotechnical futures with strong ethical principles, which delineates an innovative approach in an era when the formation of public opinion largely suffers from systematic distortions based on vested interests.

The managerial strategies towards Industry 4.0 were coupled with the emergent normativity on incentive policies to enable automation improvements and industry realignment for new automotive value chains. In other words, the national framework to support company incentives for the concept of Industry 4.0 initiatives has pushed automotive industry managers to establish strategies of new investment on automation and repositioning in the global value chain.
Similarly, the scarcity of available qualifications for Industry 4.0, makes the share of "high road" jobs stable. The qualification process in the automotive industry has increased in parallel with the investment on automation.
An important contribution to this increase on job skills is significantly based on existing vocational training policies, which enable the incoming of higher skilled young job seekers, and a lifelong training and requalification of workers in the automotive sector. We have studied the training offer on “mechatronics” for the automotive sector, including both the manufacturing and repair activities. Data indicates a trend of increase of demand for mechatronic trained technicians with higher skills and preparedness for tasks related to automation, programming, maintenance and production control.
How about compensation? short- and long-term job stability? The young professionals that are seeking for a job in an OEM of the automotive sector, or even in a component provider in this sector, have higher probability and expectations of have better wage income and longer-term job stability due to his specialized skills. We have confirmed these results in our preliminary interviews with vocational training centres and company managers.
The managerial jobs are still privileged in the process realignment of industry, even in those case where the electrification technology tends to replace the ICE one. However, these cases are very limited in Portugal. Only Caetanobus and Mitsubishi-Daimler Fuso are producing electrical vehicles. The other OEMs are in a slower process of technological modernization. The choices over the application of principles of Industry 4.0 concept in their premises implied the recruitment of more jobs with the qualification on mechatronics, and managerial jobs to coordinate and control this technological transformation. In this sense, results do not support the conclusion that these managerial jobs are being eroded.
In parallel, there is an evolution of skills for specialized work clusters (automation, robotics, engine electrification). In our research we verified that the mechatronic trained young professionals are occupying jobs related to automation and robotics. But the skills related to the propulsion technologies based on electrification have a different requirement. Although, mechatronics is mostly related to Industry 4.0 strategy, it is expected that the energy transition will induce changes in the training contents of mechatronic. Some interviews also confirmed this trend. Thus, we can expect the emergence of two work clusters around a) Industry 4.0 competences and b) powertrain electrification.

O trabalho em plataformas digitais é uma nova forma de trabalho que, em Portugal, não tem ainda definido um modelo regulado de relações de trabalho. Este artigo analisa os perfis de trabalhadores de várias plataformas digitais de trabalho e a sua representação coletiva em Portugal. A diversidade encontrada nos estudos de caso dos perfis dos trabalhadores de cada plataforma explica, em parte, a falta de interesse de movimentos laborais em os representar. O tipo de tarefas e o local de trabalho contribuem para o desinteresse na procura de representantes coletivos, e demonstra os (des)alinhamentos que ocorreram entre trabalhadores e possíveis representantes. Observa-se ainda potencial para outros alinhamentos entre os interesses de diferentes trabalhadores, movimentos sindicais e associações de representação alternativa.

The research report presents the key findings from the INVOLVE project (VS/2020/0145). It contributes to the debates on the participation of social partners in dual VET governance under countries generally classified as state-centred, skills-formation regimes (Spain, Greece, Portugal and Poland). The research report analysed the actual role played by social partners in the dual VET systems in the selected countries at different governance levels and the extent to which trade unions and employer organisations are involved on an equal footing. It also formulates policy recommendations supporting collective responses to dual VET systems in the selected countries. Findings are based on desk research, fieldwork consisting of semi-structured interviews and mini-case studies and national scenarios developed by INVOLVE partners, on the basis of a scenario workshop methodology

The so called “crowd work” is an employment form that uses a digital platform to enable organisations or individuals to access other organisations or individuals to solve specific problems or to provide specific services in exchange for payment (Valenduc and Vendramin, 2016). There are many alternative terms for crowd work used in European member states, such as crowd sourcing, crowd employment, sharing economy, platform economy, gig economy, on-demand economy, collaborative economy, Peer-to-peer economy, among others (Eurofound 2018). Recently, the term “digital platform work” has developed recently to be dominant in the literature to refer to sectors where this technology has arrived. Accordingly, this report will proceed using the latter term. These forms of online intermediation have expanded from creative and high-skilled professional activities that became virtualised as a result of digitalisation to a variety of other services and activities, traditionally delivered by self-employed, that involve the maintenance or repair of material commodities or the delivery of services in person, such as cleaning, gardening, household maintenance and transport (Huws, 2017). As a result of this, workers profiles vary from highly skilled IT and creative professionals to very unskilled workers. It has been also noted that many digital platform workers are young people looking for extra income such as students, unemployed or carers (Valenduc and Vendramin, 2016). The main Portuguese reference about work in digital platforms is fused with the Uber app. Its controversial arrival in 2014 triggered fierce responses from several groups. The main legislative reference on digital platform work is the ‘Uber law’. The symbolism of the app expressed as ‘Uberization’ became synonymous of the ‘new’ precariat, seen as a hassle of technology and an attack to organized labour in the country. There are also regulations for Airbnb at state, regional and municipal level intended to limit the number of lodgings in certain areas where touristic activities are very intense. In general, the other platforms are not covered by specific regulations.

New technologies, sustainability policies, protectionism and consumers preferences are pushing for the reorganization of the automotive cluster. (ILO, 2020) Due to recent technological advances derived from the application of AI in the domains of autonomous driving, connectivity, automation, and robotics, the automotive sector is evolving from the traditional, linear, product-oriented value chain to a mobility, service oriented one including new players (ILO, 2020). In fact, in the last years, several digital competences centers are supplying the automotive sector and have been installed in Portugal. These changes are put in place to enhance the product quality, to control costs and to improve productivity. The product shift is done to respond to new regulations on environmental protection, and to enable the control of some emergent market niches.
The paper will contribute to answer the question: what are the expectable changes in productivity due to the introduction of AI in the automotive sector and at new players in the automotive value chain in Portugal? Do they have impacts in traditional labour relations in the sector? Did the COVID-19 had an effect in the acceleration of such changes? Does the employment in the automotive sector changed with the recent automation trends in Portugal? Are there signs of improvement in qualifications with increases in automation? Or can we observe a clear job precarity in the automotive labour market with increased application of cyber physical systems in this sector? We want to develop this framework of questions to collect new data and obtain results that will be based on case studies from the automotive cluster. We will use, as well, secondary statistical analysis. Finally, changes in the productivity and labour market will be discussed in relation to the employment volume and skills in the automotive sector.
In this recently approved national project, we will focus on AI (cyber-physical systems, intelligent automation, robotics, IoT) as the most relevant emergent technology to understand the development of automation in this manufacturing sector (Geels et al., 2012; Moniz 2018). R&D investments in industrial processes in general may reflect productivity improvements derived from the increased automation process, but that may not be the general trend. Our empirical data are based until now on initial case studies from the automotive and components sector combined with database search by keywords that sign intelligence automation developments and AI applications selected from national R&D projects on robotics, machine learning, collaborative tools, human-machine interaction and autonomous systems, supported by European structural funds. The implications on industrial productivity and employment will be discussed in relation to automation trends in the automotive sector.

In this paper we will address the impacts on work and employment in Portugal of undergoing reconfigurations in automotive Global Value Chains (GVC). Due to its contributions to employment, exports and production the automotive sector is regarded as strategic for Portugal. Currently, it is caught in the midst of a turmoil, spurred by major trends that are reshaping its global outlook, with perils and opportunities for firms and workers depending on their position in different segments of GVC. The emergence of GVC transformed the patterns of international division of labour, trade and investment. Countries and regions specialize not only in products and services but increasingly in tasks and functions. Value is created globally and is apportioned along the chain depending on the tasks performed, the resources and type of workforce engaged in production in each node, its geographical location and the relative power relations within the production network. Typically, along GVC’s production stages, labour intensive, low skill tasks are ascribed – offshored and subcontracted by lead firms – to firms and workers in peripheral countries, while knowledge intensive, more complex or higher skilled tasks are retained in core regions. The value captured, as well as the share of value ascribed to labour and the quality of employment, are broadly correlated with its position in the chain. GVC, besides firms or even sectors, thus become an appropriate locus for analysing labour processes and employment patterns.
Major trends reconfiguring automotive global networks of production, include: (i) automation; (ii) digitalisation; (iii) electrification of vehicles; (iv) shifting geographies of production; and (v) industrial, employment and social policies. Manufacture of vehicles is known to be an automation-intensive sector permeated by technological developments such as new cyber-physical systems and flexible lightweight robots with an impact on work and employment, particularly on low-skilled workers. National and regional industrial, trade and investment policies articulated with company strategies, are also participating in the reshaping of the automotive GVC and changing the geographies of production. Finally, employment and social policies impinge on and are conditioned by foreign investment and location decisions of automotive multinationals, thus participating in the reshaping of GVC. In order to respond to the main overarching research question (what are the actual and prospective impacts on work and employment in Portugal driven by transitions taking place in the automotive GVC?) an analytical model will be designed. It will place the ongoing and prospective transformations of work and employment patterns as consequence of the interplay of actor’s strategies and public policies, against the background of structures and institutions. The research study will be based on major OEM operating in Portugal (VW, Stellantis, Mitsubishi and Toyota) and on automotive supply chain companies, most of them major player on the automotive GVC (Faurecia, KWD, Vintech, Sodecia, Preh).

This report is the 3rd and final report elaborated for the project CrowdWork by the Portuguese team. The text provides the context in which digital platforms operate, as well as the main governmental initiatives in some of the sectors. Five case studies provide a description of each sector and an analysis of the existing / emerging collective
organisations, their promotors, rationale and extension. In the last chapter, the text presents our main conclusions and recommendations for policy making.

The EU unveiled a stimulus package as part of the multiannual financial framework (MFF) for 2021–2027 and the temporary instrument designed to boost the economic recovery. This countercyclical response is aimed at avoiding a decline in the EU economy and protecting employment, vulnerable companies and necessity-driven entrepreneurs; however, it should also lay the foundations for a desirable entrepreneurial paradigm for the future that is driven by opportunity and embedded in a Circular Economy aligned to global well-being. We propose a new model that implies a different EU policy which puts entrepreneurship on the path toward and not away from development.

Portugal has been referred as one example of lower levels of integration of social partners in the governance of education and training systems (Sanz de Miguel, 2017). There is lack of research about the effectiveness of the governance of the only program close to the Dual VET concept: the Apprenticeship system. A pilot project of Dual VET ran from 2012 and terminated in 2016 without substantial evaluation. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the role social partners have in the governance of the existing Portuguese Apprenticeship system. We carried out extensive review of the scientific and grey literature about Dual VET for youngsters in Portugal, as well as database queries to official statistical sources. Our research reveals a complex formal role: The employment agency IEFP provides funding for Apprenticeship and negotiates with the main social partners the allocation of the Single Social Tax for its regional centres. Indirectly, many social partners are formally involved in the general VET governance participating in various coordination and monitoring structures of the National System of Qualifications and other regulatory agencies (IEFP and ANQEP). In this article we also discuss possible causes for the failure of the pilot Dual VET, which took effect within the scope of a curricular review of the primary and secondary education.

Since the 1970s, the application of microprocessor in industrial machinery and the development of computer systems have transformed the manufacturing landscape. The rapid integration and automation of production systems have outpaced the development of suitable human design criteria, creating a deepening gap between humans and systems in which human was seen as an important source of errors and disruptions. Today, the situation seems different: the scientific and public debate about the concept of Industry 4.0 has raised awareness about the central role humans have to play in manufacturing systems, the design of which must be considered from the very beginning. The future of industrial systems, as represented by Industry 4.0, will rely on the convergence of several research fields such as Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS), Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), Internet of Things (IoT), but also socio-technical fields such as social approaches within technical systems. This article deals with different human social dimensions associated with CPS and IoT and focuses on their conceptual evolution regarding automated production systems’ sociability, notably by bringing humans back in the loop. Hereby, this paper aims to take stock of current research trends to show the importance of integrating human operators as a part of a socio-technical system based autonomous and intelligent products or resources. Consequently, different models of sociability as a way to integrate humans in the broad sense and/or the develop future automated production systems have been identified from the literature and analysed.

Due to the innovative possibilities of digital technologies, the issue of increasing automation is once again on the agenda – and not only in the industry, but also in other branches and sectors of contemporary societies. Although public and scientific discussions about automation seem to raise relevant questions of the “old” debate, such as the replacement of human labor by introducing new technologies, the authors focus here on the new contextual quality of these questions. The debate should rethink the relationship between technology and work with regard to quantitative and qualitative changes in work. In this article, our example will be the introduction of automation in industry, which has been reflected in the widely recognized study by Frey and Osborne in 2013. They estimated the expected impacts of future computerization on US labor market outcomes as very high, specifically regarding the number of jobs at risk. Surprisingly, this study was the starting point of an intensive international debate on the impact of technologies on the future of work and the role of technological change in working environments. Thus, according to the authors, “old” questions remain important, but they should be reinterpreted for “new” societal demands and expectations of future models of work.

This paper intended to provide a vision on the potential consequences of the introduction of emerging air transportation system which was based on a section of the thesis to contribute to the forming of public and policy opinion.Especially this paper tried to understand whether there were enough positive social and environmental impacts in terms of potential benefits to continue the efforts.The negative impacts are beyond the scope of this paper. Limitations of the current ground and airline transportation systems, increasing congestion, poor block speed, combined with expanding population and demand for affordable on-demand mobility are driving the development of future transportation technology and policy. The third wave of aeronautic,e VTOL (Vertical Takeoff and landing) Air Transportation System, is envisioned as the next logical step in the natural progression and could bring about great new capabilities for society that would bring aviation into a new age of being relevant in daily lives. Considering door to door block time, e VTOL Air Transportation System has the potential to achieve anotherfive-fold increase over the auto today as the auto provided ten-fold increase over the horse, and a daily mobility reach of 125 to 250 miles.The main benefits will be on-demand, point-to-point,safe travel, further and anywhere in less travel time with almost zero environmental impact for general people. Besides, a successful implementation and sustainable transition will depend on overcoming technological hurdles, regulatory frameworks, operational safety, cost competitiveness, and sensibilities of the affected communities.