António Moniz

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The results presented in this article are related to the field of investigation defined inside the European TSER project on "Information Society, Work and Generation of New Forms of Social Exclusion " (SOWING). The thematic center of the project is connected with the question of the relations that exist between the introduction of information technologies (IT) and the changes in the waged labour as well as in the organisation of work systems. The introduction of these technologies transformed specially the activities on services as well as certain branches, where great changes of the organization of work for the next future assume, which are discussed within the margin of the debate on future forms of work. The tendencies within the occupational structures indicate an individualisation of the insecurities and an opening of the occupational carreers. For these reasons, the development of the occupational carreers is more and more bound to the biographical planning. The institutionalised occupational model is changing very strongly, which in the long term will take to social and cultural changes, not only in the professional life, but also in the private life.

The interest to study this factory of GM group in Portugal is due to the facto of being one of the oldest assembly lines of the automotive sector still operating in Portugal (it was founded in 1963). Besides that, it went recently across a very intensive technological change, and then would be interesting to know the organisation of work model chose. The Opel factory occupies at the moment the former one that belonged to Ford Lusitana. There it has being under production some modules that feed the assembly line on JIT and in sequence. Although there were severe difficulties to implement the case study at Opel, this report could be done using secondary information and several interviews at the factory and initial visits. This Opel factory was recently closed down in the frame of a GM European strategy for re-structuring.

Germany has ambitious targets to produce 35 % of the needed electricity from Renewables (RES) mainly based on wind and solar power by 2020 and over 80 % by 2050 within the so called “Energiewende”. Energy storage is seen as a potential option to assure the safe RES system integration to achieve this goals. There is a high uncertainty and the resulting public discourse about the future demand of different storage technologies is driving further development of these technologies. A literature review of 9 studies and 10 expert interviews is carried out in line of a foresight exercise to tackle these uncertainties. The estimations of reviewed literature are based on models with a market perspective on energy storage demand. Most scenarios used in this models are built on top down logics, where processes at lower levels (technology, micro-economic sphere) are determined by dominant macro dynamics. Different storage technologies are only considered partially or in an aggregated way. The reviewed studies show that there is a high for potential storage on every time scale starting from the year 2030 to 2040. Analysed potentials vary depending on RES diffusion scenarios and excess rate assumptions which are estimated to be between 0 to 44 GW in 2050. Reviewed studies strongly integrate shared visions about system developments and formal analyses and provide important and valuable information about potential future implications regarding energy storage. But they only partially account, due to practical reasons, wider benefits, stakeholder opinions and continuous market and system changes. It is also not possible to account for discontinuities in the technological innovation process of energy storage within this quantitative approaches. Stakeholder interviews provide thus additional and helpful insights to the literature review. The stakeholders frame alternative potential future developments that could influence the market success and need for energy storage until 2050. Most important factors named where policy measures, new market models and decentralization of the energy system. As in literature there is a big uncertainty among experts about the importance of different storage technologies and if energy storage is in general the best option among other flexibility measures as grid reinforcement, flexible demand and flexible power plants. It remains thus impossible to provide suggestions regarding the development of single storage technologies.

The most significative text of the European Commission on the construction of a strategy for an Information Society is, undoubtly the document on “Job Opportunities in the Information Society”. The major dimension of the change process was not anymore the technological evolution one. Information society should integrate the social-economical dimensions with industries that use information and communication products and services, beside those of so-called “Information Society industries”. Is not only this sector that is growing in terms of employment, but also the other sectors can be also important ICT users. Employment in the information society leads the employment growth in EU. In this study are analysed the different national programs and strategies, and with particular relevance the Portuguese case.

The EU unveiled a stimulus package as part of the multiannual financial framework (MFF) for 2021–2027 and the temporary instrument designed to boost the economic recovery. This countercyclical response is aimed at avoiding a decline in the EU economy and protecting employment, vulnerable companies and necessity-driven entrepreneurs; however, it should also lay the foundations for a desirable entrepreneurial paradigm for the future that is driven by opportunity and embedded in a Circular Economy aligned to global well-being. We propose a new model that implies a different EU policy which puts entrepreneurship on the path toward and not away from development.

The last decades have shown an increasing amount of research into expectations of science and technology. Especially for emerging technologies, expectations held by different stakeholder are guiding the direction of research and development. In this article the results of an investigation into the expectations of specific actors regarding the development of emerging battery technology for applications in the power grid are presented. It is set up as an explorative study within the framework of Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA). A number of studies since the 1990s have indicated a growing need for energy storage options in the power grid, where batteries appear to be capable of providing a range of valuable services to the grid. Cost-effectiveness on a large scale will however require considerable technical improvements. The configuration of energy storage may differ in the specific location and exploitation of the storage assets, as well as in the investments in new storage capacity. In this study the visions and expectations of several relevant actors are analysed using interviews and surveys in terms of expectations of technological development, expectations concerning stakeholder roles, and channels of interaction between the relevant actors. The results indicate a divide in expectations between the user side of the technology (the electric power industry) and the development side (academic researchers). Opinions differ with respect to the obstacles to technological development, the actors relevant in early technological development, and the most suitable channels for interaction between these actors. It follows from the theoretical background that conflicts in expectations provide the opportunity for the acceleration of technological development and adoption through stakeholder participation. Small interactive workshops, where conflicts identified in this paper are discussed, were identified as a suitable channel in order to reach consensus in visions and expectations for battery technology.

The socio-economic subsystem encompassing fisheries may be defined as including not only the harvesting sector but also several related activities occurring both upstream (shipbuilding, gear manufacture) and downstream (processing, distribution and trade). But these closely interrelated economic activities can also be set within a much broader system which would include the ecological, institutional and political influences which frame economic behaviour. The value of this broader conceptualisation is that it treats fisheries not as an isolated and independent economic activity but as part of a more holistic and complex system. This broader perspective is of particular significance when attempting to examine the concept of regional dependence. The socio-economic subsystem for fisheries is dominated by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). And Peniche emerges as one of Portugal’s most important fishing ports whether measured in terms of the volume of landings or the total numbers of fishermen. It also has one of the highest levels of fisheries dependence of all coastal municipalities in Portugal with over 20% of its workforce currently engaged in fisheries related employment, faces a daunting and uncertain future. The social fabric of fisheries dependent communities also suffers serious damage; once again, the technocratic approach to management has no solutions to offer. It is essential, therefore, to turn away from the existing approach and to develop instead new forms of intervention; in short, to provide a new vision. This implies change not only to the policy process but also in the attitudes of the social actors and in the preoccupations of fisheries related research. An integrated approach is required based on participative action and the development of an integrated information network.

As a Norwegian sociologist pointed out recently at the Encontro Internacional de Vilamoura on Fishing, “the fisheries management is the management of people, not fish" This statement may surprise many specialists, but it puts once again a series of questions and problems in their true place: society, social relationships, individuals. It is necessary to adopt a new attitude, a new type of intervention, a new vision, which may mean “community management”, a system of co-management, new models of business organisation and consumer behaviour. Towards this end, sociology can and should contribute with its analytical instruments, with its set of scientific reflections and controversies, to the enrichment of the knowledge about a complex reality in profound change, such as that of the socio-economic fisheries system.

The new book edited by Rodríguez and colleagues focuses on the topic of forecasting and responsible innovation. The original title is “Anticipación e Innovación Responsible: La construcción de futuros alternativos para la ciencia y la tecnologia” (Forecasting and Responsible Innovation: The construction of alternative futures for science and technology), and was published by Biblioteca Nueva, Madrid. Throughout this text, the reviewer is using the term forecasting instead of anticipation to convey the Spanish concept of “anticipación.” Both concepts are usually applied to “the act of looking forward” (Merriam-Webster dictionary1) or “the act of expecting or foreseeing something; expectation or presentiment” (Farlex free dictionary2) The concept of forecasting is usually used in scientific debate to mean “to estimate or predict in advance” (American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, 2016) or “the process of making predictions based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends” (Wikipedia3) (Glenn, 1994, p. 4) expressed this definition well by saying that “studying the future is not simply economic projections or sociological analysis or technological forecasting, but a multi-disciplinary examination of change in all major areas of life to find the interacting dynamics that are creating the next age.” The concept has been developed mainly by Armstrong (2001) and followed by Farrukh and Holgado (2020), Schnaars (2009), and Marinakis (2012), among others. The editors are professors and researchers from the University of Basque Country (EHU) and from the University of Mondragon (MU). The book involves a whole set of experts on the topic, including the editors themselves (Hannot Rodríguez, Sergio Urueña, Andoni Eizagirre, and Oier Imaz), and Armin Grunwald, René von Schomberg, Javier Garcia Fronti, Domingo García Marzá, Andoni Ibarra, and others. Although still published just in Spanish, it is an important contribution to the social sciences and philosophy of sciences regarding the analysis of alternative sociotechnical futures with strong ethical principles, which delineates an innovative approach in an era when the formation of public opinion largely suffers from systematic distortions based on vested interests.

The foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences, especially in terms of innovative methods for labour process analysis. A scenario – as a central concept for the prospective analysis – can be considered as a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world. It can be a useful tool for policy-makers to grasp problems clearly and comprehensively, and to better pinpoint challenges as well as opportunities in an overall framework. The features of the foresight methods are being used in some labour policy making experiences. Case studies developed in Portugal will be presented, and some conclusions will be drawn in order to organise a set of principles for foresight analysis applied to the European project WORKS on the work organisation re-structuring in the knowledge society, and on the work design methods for new management structures of virtual organisations.

The foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences, especially in terms of innovative methods for labour process analysis. A scenario – as a central concept for the prospective analysis – can be considered as a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world. It can be a useful tool for policy-makers to grasp problems clearly and comprehensively, and to better pinpoint challenges as well as opportunities in an overall framework. The features of the foresight methods are being used in some labour policy making experiences. Case studies developed in Portugal will be presented, and some conclusions will be drawn in order to organise a set of principles for foresight analysis applied to the European project WORKS on the work organisation re-structuring in the knowledge society, and on the work design methods for new management structures of virtual organisations.

The 2nd International Conference on "Foresight Studies on Work in the Knowledge Society" was organised by IET, the Research Centre on Enterprise and Work Innovation, at the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of "Universidade Nova de Lisboa" (FCT-UNL), and took place on January 26 and 27 of 2009 with the support of the European project WORKS-Work Organisation Re-structuring in the Knowledge Society (financed by the European Commission, and co-ordinated by HIVA Leuven)

WORKS final conference report

The majority of papers published in the last decades on European Union policy strongly stress the importance of the so-called Lisbon Strategy approved in the year 2000. The same applies to studies and reports on the shift of the European countries towards modernisation and restructuring policy in recent years. This EU development strategy defines a new direction for the coordination of national policies. But why has it become so important? One of the reasons is the fact that many of the papers are based on the concept of “knowledge society” as the key driver for an increased competitiveness of all political and economic regions of Europe. In this context, the term “knowledge” means the inter-linkage of education (including training, qualification, skills) and innovation (including research, information and communication). The use of the concept represents an important shift in the European strategy: further development would not only be based on investment in material infrastructures, but also more on the immaterial ground. However, this Lisbon Strategy was criticised by many politicians and opinion-makers in the first years of this century because the European structures were not prepared for such a quick change. At the same time, the focus for investment moved away from the traditional support of industrial sectors (manufacturing, agriculture and fisheries, construction) towards the “new economy” sectors. The vision of a knowledge society remained appealing also in a changing international context: the Middle East wars (Afghanistan, Iraq and Israel-Palestine) and the fast growth of the Chinese economy. However, the shadows of new recessions have strongly questioned the options made by the European Council. New challenges have emerged with the need to redefine collective strategies in terms of European development as set by the Lisbon strategy. “Europe 2020” is one more attempt to define a new strategy. But at present no clear path has been identifi

Portugal had only very few foresight exercises on the automobile sector, and the most recent one was a survey held in a project on work organisation systems in the automobile industry, its recent historical paths and the special strategies of location of companies (the WorTiS project). This involved several teams with different disciplinary backgrounds and from two Portuguese universities. The provisional main results of the first round of a Delphi survey held in Portugal on the automotive sector were already published, but a further analysis was not yet done. This foresight survey was done under the WorTiS project, developed in 2004 by IET – Research Centre on Enterprise and Work Innovation (at FCT-UNL), and financed by the Portuguese Ministry of Science and Technology. Some of this experience on foresight analysis is also been transferred to other projects, namely the WORKS project on work organisation restructuring in the knowledge society that received the support from EC and still is running. The majority of experts considered having an average of less knowledge in almost all the scenario topics presented. This means that information on the automotive industry is not spread enough among academics or experts in related fields (regional scientists, innovation economists, engineers, sociologists). Some have a good knowledge but in very specialised fields. Others have expertise on foresight, or macroeconomics, or management sciences, but feel insecure on issues related with futures of automobile sector. Nevertheless, we considered specially the topics where the experts considered themselves to have some knowledge. There were no “irrelevant” topics considered as such by the expert panel. There are also no topics that are not considered a need for co-operation. The lack of technological infrastructures was not considered as a hindered factor for the accomplishment of any scenario. The experts’ panel considered no other international competence besides US, Jap

Portugal had only very few foresight exercises on the automobile sector, and the most recent one was a survey held in a project on work organisation systems in the automobile industry, its recent historical paths and the special strategies of location of companies (the WorTiS project). This involved several teams with different disciplinary backgrounds and from two Portuguese universities. The provisional main results of the first round of a Delphi survey held in Portugal on the automotive sector were already published, but a further analysis was not yet done. This foresight survey was done under the WorTiS project, developed in 2004 by IET – Research Centre on Enterprise and Work Innovation (at FCT-UNL), and financed by the Portuguese Ministry of Science and Technology. Some of this experience on foresight analysis is also been transferred to other projects, namely the WORKS project on work organisation restructuring in the knowledge society that received the support from EC and still is running. The majority of experts considered having an average of less knowledge in almost all the scenario topics presented. This means that information on the automotive industry is not spread enough among academics or experts in related fields (regional scientists, innovation economists, engineers, sociologists). Some have a good knowledge but in very specialised fields. Others have expertise on foresight, or macroeconomics, or management sciences, but feel insecure on issues related with futures of automobile sector. Nevertheless, we considered specially the topics where the experts considered themselves to have some knowledge. There were no “irrelevant” topics considered as such by the expert panel. There are also no topics that are not considered a need for co-operation. The lack of technological infrastructures was not considered as a hindered factor for the accomplishment of any scenario. The experts’ panel considered no other international competence besides US, Jap

Portugal had only very few foresight exercises on the automobile sector, and the most recent one was a survey held in a project on work organisation systems in the automobile industry, its recent historical paths and the special strategies of location of companies (the WorTiS project). This involved several teams with different disciplinary backgrounds and from two Portuguese universities. The provisional main results of the first round of a Delphi survey held in Portugal on the automotive sector were already published, but a further analysis was not yet done. This foresight survey was done under the WorTiS project, developed in 2004 by IET – Research Centre on Enterprise and Work Innovation (at FCT-UNL), and financed by the Portuguese Ministry of Science and Technology. Some of this experience on foresight analysis is also been transferred to other projects, namely the WORKS project on work organisation restructuring in the knowledge society that received the support from EC and still is running. The majority of experts considered having an average of less knowledge in almost all the scenario topics presented. This means that information on the automotive industry is not spread enough among academics or experts in related fields (regional scientists, innovation economists, engineers, sociologists). Some have a good knowledge but in very specialised fields. Others have expertise on foresight, or macroeconomics, or management sciences, but feel insecure on issues related with futures of automobile sector. Nevertheless, we considered specially the topics where the experts considered themselves to have some knowledge. There were no “irrelevant” topics considered as such by the expert panel. There are also no topics that are not considered a need for co-operation. The lack of technological infrastructures was not considered as a hindered factor for the accomplishment of any scenario. The experts' panel considered no other international competence besides US, Japan

Some programs and research networks are dealing with topics associated to the automtive sector and they observe one of the most significative sectores of modern economies. Because of that is so interesting to forecast some possible changes in an horizon of 10 to 20 years. But this exercse must not be centred only on technical aspects of automobile construction, or on the design, or even on the mobility systems. How one can face these problems, and how it can be so decisivelly important, is what we will try to answer in this paper that resumes some of the debates on the foresight exercises in Germany (Futur) and on the automotive sector in Portugal (WorTiS).