António Moniz

In this paper we will address the impacts on work and employment in Portugal of undergoing reconfigurations in automotive Global Value Chains (GVC). Due to its contributions to employment, exports and production the automotive sector is regarded as strategic for Portugal. Currently, it is caught in the midst of a turmoil, spurred by major trends that are reshaping its global outlook, with perils and opportunities for firms and workers depending on their position in different segments of GVC. The emergence of GVC transformed the patterns of international division of labour, trade and investment. Countries and regions specialize not only in products and services but increasingly in tasks and functions. Value is created globally and is apportioned along the chain depending on the tasks performed, the resources and type of workforce engaged in production in each node, its geographical location and the relative power relations within the production network. Typically, along GVC’s production stages, labour intensive, low skill tasks are ascribed – offshored and subcontracted by lead firms – to firms and workers in peripheral countries, while knowledge intensive, more complex or higher skilled tasks are retained in core regions. The value captured, as well as the share of value ascribed to labour and the quality of employment, are broadly correlated with its position in the chain. GVC, besides firms or even sectors, thus become an appropriate locus for analysing labour processes and employment patterns.
Major trends reconfiguring automotive global networks of production, include: (i) automation; (ii) digitalisation; (iii) electrification of vehicles; (iv) shifting geographies of production; and (v) industrial, employment and social policies. Manufacture of vehicles is known to be an automation-intensive sector permeated by technological developments such as new cyber-physical systems and flexible lightweight robots with an impact on work and employment, particularly on low-skilled workers. National and regional industrial, trade and investment policies articulated with company strategies, are also participating in the reshaping of the automotive GVC and changing the geographies of production. Finally, employment and social policies impinge on and are conditioned by foreign investment and location decisions of automotive multinationals, thus participating in the reshaping of GVC. In order to respond to the main overarching research question (what are the actual and prospective impacts on work and employment in Portugal driven by transitions taking place in the automotive GVC?) an analytical model will be designed. It will place the ongoing and prospective transformations of work and employment patterns as consequence of the interplay of actor’s strategies and public policies, against the background of structures and institutions. The research study will be based on major OEM operating in Portugal (VW, Stellantis, Mitsubishi and Toyota) and on automotive supply chain companies, most of them major player on the automotive GVC (Faurecia, KWD, Vintech, Sodecia, Preh).

Due to the ongoing technical advancements in robotics, new organizational and occupational impacts are expected in different sectors. The contribution of António Moniz and Bettina-Johanna Krings focuses on the social conditions under which technology is embedded into production processes. Thus, social distribution processes, demographic change, sustainability becomes more and more important when reflecting about "technology futures".
In particular they will ask:
How does automation change work & working conditions?
Which expectations on technology are strengthen-ing the concepts of work?
Which regulations and ethics principles must be considered (safety, autonomy, control)?
Which new competences and qualification dimen-sions will be raised for non-routine tasks in auto-mated environments?
Which new types of human-machine interaction can be developed with increased cyber-physical system application at the shopfloor?

Germany has ambitious targets to produce 35 % of the needed electricity from Renewables (RES) mainly based on wind and solar power by 2020 and over 80 % by 2050 within the so called “Energiewende”. Energy storage is seen as a potential option to assure the safe RES system integration to achieve this goals. There is a high uncertainty and the resulting public discourse about the future demand of different storage technologies is driving further development of these technologies. A literature review of 9 studies and 10 expert interviews is carried out in line of a foresight exercise to tackle these uncertainties. The estimations of reviewed literature are based on models with a market perspective on energy storage demand. Most scenarios used in this models are built on top down logics, where processes at lower levels (technology, micro-economic sphere) are determined by dominant macro dynamics. Different storage technologies are only considered partially or in an aggregated way. The reviewed studies show that there is a high for potential storage on every time scale starting from the year 2030 to 2040. Analysed potentials vary depending on RES diffusion scenarios and excess rate assumptions which are estimated to be between 0 to 44 GW in 2050. Reviewed studies strongly integrate shared visions about system developments and formal analyses and provide important and valuable information about potential future implications regarding energy storage. But they only partially account, due to practical reasons, wider benefits, stakeholder opinions and continuous market and system changes. It is also not possible to account for discontinuities in the technological innovation process of energy storage within this quantitative approaches. Stakeholder interviews provide thus additional and helpful insights to the literature review. The stakeholders frame alternative potential future developments that could influence the market success and need for energy storage until 2050. Most important factors named where policy measures, new market models and decentralization of the energy system. As in literature there is a big uncertainty among experts about the importance of different storage technologies and if energy storage is in general the best option among other flexibility measures as grid reinforcement, flexible demand and flexible power plants. It remains thus impossible to provide suggestions regarding the development of single storage technologies.

Political and economic crises and issues such as global warming, decreased fossil fuel reserves, environmental pollutions and acid rains are just some of the problems caused by improper energy consumption. Energy efficiency optimization with the right policy and definition of accurate scientific methods proven in energy consumption includes planning, enforcement, organizing permanent control, and continuously reviewing technology upgrades. Additionally, developing legal solutions to implement these programs prevents the destruction and waste of energy resources and reduces the side effects of improper energy consumption. The shape of the city and its components can affect the city’s quality and its spaces, as well as the air quality change, creating a particular climate in their area, causing phenomena such as heat islands, dust, rain, albedo, atmospheric inversion, and some others. By making changes in the shape of the city, both on a large scale and a micro-scale, atmospheric currents and, consequently, air quality in cities can be improved. Urban morphological indicators, including building height, building type, occupancy level, segmentation, block size, block shape, density, and urban green, can affect the weather and climate conditions outside and inside the building and, thus, the energy demand in the areas. By creating effective reforms in the model of configuration of the urban regions, including the pattern of land fragmentation, the physical characteristics of buildings, the network of passages and open spaces, it is possible to increase the energy efficiency of buildings in the long term in the regional(synoptic) climatic conditions of the city and the neighbourhood.

This paper is discussing the intuitive interaction with robotic systems and the conceptualisation connected with known organisational problems. In particular, the focus will be on the manufacturing industry with respect to its social dimension. One of the aims is to identify relevant research questions about the possibility of development of safer robot systems in closer human-machine intuitive interaction systems at the manufacturing shop-floor level. We try to contribute to minimize the cognitive and perceptual workload for robot operators in complex working systems. In particular that will be highly relevant when more different robots with different roles and produced by different companies or designers are to be used in the manufacturing industry to a larger extent. The social sciences approach to such technology assessment is of high relevance to understand the dimensions of the intuitive interaction concept.

In recent years, statistical data revealed a strong dynamism in terms of Research and Development (R&D) growth, of development of innovation structures and emergence of programs, and a growth in terms of industrial integration. However, the political and financial changes from 2007 at the global level revealed as well how fragile are these
outcomes in terms of sustainable development strategy, and how far dependent are from the external markets and political structures. Based on the available information and data, we will present the changes observed in recent years, and understand how the industrial integration can be achieved with clear linkages to the national innovation system and the importance of R&D policy to structure the articulation between innovation and the economic market. The challenges and potential problems can be anticipated if the social implications are also present on the policy options, and if clear technology assessment procedures are taken. When this does not occur, the probability of endogenization of innovation and R&D will become problematic. For these reasons it can be difficult to talk
about a “success story” when all these elements are not considered as a whole and are only seen through very specific angles and with very specialized approaches.

Despite increasing calls for evidence-based policies, knowledge about the practical use of evidences remains limited. This paper studies the process of construction of evidences in decisions of innovation policy to understand how evidences were used. It analysis the use of indicators and other evidences through interviews conducted to inquire about the two decisions: an electric mobility policy and a nanotechnology laboratory. Results show indicators and other evidences were brought to decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different interests of the actors and
the stakeholders. Their role was influenced by the particular situation of the decision makers. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidences appears to be related with the adversity of the policy context. In addition, research suggests that indicators are one tool among others to foster innovation decisions. In fact, the relatively minor instrumental role of indicators suggests that indicators are mostly a complementary instrument of decision. When used relevantly, indicators can offer support to a decision. But there are other significant influences that need to be taken into account to understand the specific role indicators and other evidences play, such as the social relations of the decision makers and their emotional-intuitive decisions.

1st ISA Forum report