Rodrigues, Paula, Carlota Rebelo, and Gabriela M. M. GomesMulti-scale models for drug resistant tuberculosis. International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2012. La Manga, Murcia, Spain, 2012.
Gomes, Gabriela M. M., Ricardo Aguas, Joao S. Lopes, Marta C. Nunes, Carlota Rebelo, Paula Rodrigues, and Claudio J. Struchiner. "How host heterogeneity governs tuberculosis reinfection?" PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES. 279 (2012): 2473-2478. Abstract
Vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 have been ongoing worldwide since the end of 2020. Understanding their possible effect is key to prevent future disease spread. Using a modelling approach, this study intends to measure the impact of the COVID-19 Portuguese vaccination strategy on the effective reproduction number and explore three scenarios for vaccine effectiveness waning. Namely, the no-immunity-loss, 1-year and 3-years of immunity duration scenarios. We adapted an age-structured SEIR deterministic model and used Portuguese hospitalisation data for the model calibration. Results show that, although the Portuguese vaccination plan had a substantial impact in reducing overall transmission, it might not be sufficient to control disease spread. A significant vaccination coverage of those above 5 years old, a vaccine effectiveness against disease of at least 80% and softer non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask usage and social distancing, would be necessary to control disease spread in the worst scenario considered. The immunity duration scenario of 1-year displays a resurgence of COVID-19 hospitalisations by the end of 2021, the same is observed in 3-year scenario although with a lower magnitude. The no-immunity-loss scenario presents a low increase in hospitalisations. In both the 1-year and 3-year scenarios, a vaccination boost of those above 65 years old would result in a 53% and 38% peak reduction of non-ICU hospitalisations, respectively. These results suggest that NPIs should not be fully phased-out but instead be combined with a fast booster vaccination strategy to reduce healthcare burden.