Publications

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2022
Machado, B., L. Antunes, C. Caetano, J. F. Pereira, B. Nunes, P. Patrício, and M. L. Morgado. "The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal." Mathematical Biosciences and Engeneering. 19 (2022): 936-952.
Pereira, João F., Constantino Caetano, Liliana Antunes, Paula Patr{\'ıcio, Maria Lu{\'ısa Morgado, and Baltazar Nunes. "COVID-19 Hospitalisation in Portugal, the first year: Results from hospital discharge data." medRxiv (2022). Abstract
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Caetano, Constantino, Maria Luísa Morgado, Paula Patrício, Andreia Leite, Ausenda Machado, André Torres, João Freitas Pereira, Sónia Namorado, Ana Sottomayor, André Peralta-Santos, and Baltazar Nunes. "Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: a modelling study for Portugal." Vaccine (2022). AbstractWebsite

Vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 have been ongoing worldwide since the end of 2020. Understanding their possible effect is key to prevent future disease spread. Using a modelling approach, this study intends to measure the impact of the COVID-19 Portuguese vaccination strategy on the effective reproduction number and explore three scenarios for vaccine effectiveness waning. Namely, the no-immunity-loss, 1-year and 3-years of immunity duration scenarios. We adapted an age-structured SEIR deterministic model and used Portuguese hospitalisation data for the model calibration. Results show that, although the Portuguese vaccination plan had a substantial impact in reducing overall transmission, it might not be sufficient to control disease spread. A significant vaccination coverage of those above 5 years old, a vaccine effectiveness against disease of at least 80% and softer non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask usage and social distancing, would be necessary to control disease spread in the worst scenario considered. The immunity duration scenario of 1-year displays a resurgence of COVID-19 hospitalisations by the end of 2021, the same is observed in 3-year scenario although with a lower magnitude. The no-immunity-loss scenario presents a low increase in hospitalisations. In both the 1-year and 3-year scenarios, a vaccination boost of those above 65 years old would result in a 53% and 38% peak reduction of non-ICU hospitalisations, respectively. These results suggest that NPIs should not be fully phased-out but instead be combined with a fast booster vaccination strategy to reduce healthcare burden.

2021
Caetano, Constantino, Maria Luisa Morgado, Paula Patrício, João F. Pereira, and Baltazar Nunes. "Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of Non-Pharmacological Strategies to Control the COVID-19 Epidemic in Portugal." Mathematics. 9.10 (2021).
Esquível, Manuel L., Nadezhda P. Krasii, Gracinda R. Guerreiro, and Paula Patrício. "The Multi-Compartment SI (RD) Model with Regime Switching: An Application to COVID-19 Pandemic." Symmetry. 13 (2021): 2427. Abstract

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2020
Esquível, Manuel L., Paula Patrício, and Gracinda R. Guerreiro. "From ODE to Open Markov Chains, via SDE: an application to models for infections in individuals and populations." Computational and Mathematical Biophysics. 8 (2020): 180-197.
2016
Doutor, Paulo, Paula Rodrigues, Maria Ceu do Soares, and Fabio A. C. C. Chalub. "Optimal vaccination strategies and rational behaviour in seasonal epidemics." JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY. 73 (2016): 1437-1465. Abstract

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2015
Pinho, S. T. R., P. Rodrigues, R. F. S. Andrade, H. Serra, J. S. Lopes, and M. G. M. Gomes. "Impact of tuberculosis treatment length and adherence under different transmission intensities." THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY. 104 (2015): 68-77. Abstract

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2014
Rodrigues, Paula, Cristiana J. Silva, and Delfim F. M. Torres. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Optimal Control Measures for Tuberculosis." BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY. 76 (2014): 2627-2645. Abstract

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Lopes, Joao Sollari, Paula Rodrigues, Suani T. R. Pinho, Roberto F. S. Andrade, Raquel Duarte, and Gabriela M. M. Gomes. "Interpreting measures of tuberculosis transmission: a case study on the Portuguese population." BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES. 14 (2014). Abstract

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2013
Rodrigues, Paula, Cristiana J. Silva, and Delfim F. M. Torres Optimal control strategies for reducing the number of active infected individuals with tuberculosis. SIAM Conference on Control and Its Applications (CT13). San Diego, California, USA, 2013.
2012
Gomes, Gabriela M. M., Ricardo Aguas, Joao S. Lopes, Marta C. Nunes, Carlota Rebelo, Paula Rodrigues, and Claudio J. Struchiner. "How host heterogeneity governs tuberculosis reinfection?" PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES. 279 (2012): 2473-2478. Abstract

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Rodrigues, Paula, Carlota Rebelo, and Gabriela M. M. Gomes Multi-scale models for drug resistant tuberculosis. International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2012. La Manga, Murcia, Spain, 2012.
2009
Rodrigues, Paula, Alessandro Margheri, Carlota Rebelo, and Gabriela M. M. Gomes. "Heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection can explain high reinfection rates." JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY. 259 (2009): 280-290. Abstract

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2007
Gomes, Gabriela M. M., Paula Rodrigues, Frank M. Hilker, Natalia B. Mantilla-Beniers, Marion Muehlen, Ana Cristina Paulo, and Graham F. Medley. "Implications of partial immunity on the prospects for tuberculosis control by post-exposure interventions." JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY. 248 (2007): 608-617. Abstract

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Rodrigues, Paula, Gabriela M. M. Gomes, and Carlota Rebelo. "Drug resistance in tuberculosis - a reinfection model." THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY. 71 (2007): 196-212. Abstract

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