@proceedings {12384,
	title = {Energy storage systems in the future German electricity system: A literature review and expert interviews based foresight approach},
	journal = {Pensar o Futuro, Preparar a Mudan{\c c}a [To Think the Future, To Prepare Change]},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {89 {\textendash} 108},
	publisher = {CICS.NOVA/Universidade de {\'E}vora},
	address = {{\'E}vora},
	abstract = {<p>Germany  has  ambitious targets  to  produce 35 \% of the  needed  electricity  from  Renewables  (RES) mainly  based  on  wind  and  solar  power  by  2020  and  over  80 \%  by  2050  within  the  so  called {\textquotedblleft}Energiewende{\textquotedblright}. Energy storage is seen as a potential option to assure the safe RES system integration to achieve this goals. There is a high uncertainty and the resulting public discourse about the future demand  of  different  storage  technologies  is  driving  further  development of  these  technologies.  A literature review of 9 studies and 10 expert interviews is carried out in line of a foresight exercise to tackle these uncertainties. The estimations of reviewed literature are based on models with a market perspective on energy storage demand. Most scenarios used in this models are built on top down logics,  where  processes  at  lower  levels  (technology,  micro-economic  sphere)  are  determined  by dominant  macro  dynamics.  Different  storage  technologies  are  only  considered  partially  or  in  an aggregated way. The reviewed studies show that there is a high for potential storage on every time scale  starting  from  the  year  2030  to  2040.  Analysed  potentials  vary  depending  on  RES  diffusion scenarios  and  excess  rate  assumptions  which  are  estimated  to  be  between  0  to  44 GW  in  2050. Reviewed studies strongly integrate shared visions about system developments and formal analyses and provide important and valuable information about potential future implications regarding energy storage. But they only partially account, due to practical reasons, wider benefits, stakeholder opinions and continuous market and system changes. It is also not possible to account for discontinuities in the technological innovation process of energy storage within this quantitative approaches. Stakeholder interviews provide thus additional and helpful insights to the literature review. The stakeholders frame alternative potential future developments that could influence the market success and need for energy storage until 2050. Most important factors named where policy measures, new market models and decentralization of the energy system. As in literature there is a big uncertainty among experts about the importance of different storage technologies and if energy storage is in general the best option among other flexibility measures as grid reinforcement, flexible demand and flexible power plants. It remains  thus  impossible  to  provide  suggestions  regarding  the  development  of  single  storage technologies.</p>
},
	author = {Manuel Baumann and Ant{\'o}nio B. Moniz and Marcel Weil}
}
